Bitcoin: Is It Heading for a Rough Patch?

Bitcoin has been bouncing back from recent lows, but it's still in a shaky spot. The demand is weak, and there's a lot of stress in the market. This situation reminds some experts of early 2022, which wasn't a great time for Bitcoin. Right now, Bitcoin is holding above the True Market Mean, which is a key level that usually separates small dips from bigger drops. But over 25% of Bitcoin is now at a loss, and the price is below major cost levels. This means a lot of people are losing money, and it's not looking good. Unrealized losses have shot up to 5–7 million BTC, which is the highest since 2023. This is similar to what happened in early 2022, when Bitcoin was stuck in a rut. However, there's still some good news. The capital momentum is slightly positive, with about $8. 7 billion coming in each month. This is helping to stabilize the price and might mean the market is finding a bottom.

Long-term holders are still selling some of their Bitcoin, but their profits are shrinking. This is another sign that things are similar to 2022. Off-chain signals also show that demand is cooling off. ETF flows have turned negative, meaning big buyers are stepping back. Spot CVD on major exchanges shows persistent selling pressure. Futures data shows that traders are being cautious. Open interest is falling, leverage is low, and funding rates are neutral. This means speculative traders are pulling back and not taking big risks. The options market also shows a brief spike in fear earlier this week, but it quickly faded.

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