CNN Instant Poll: No clear winner in VP debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance

CNN — Registered voters who watched Tuesday’s debate between vice presidential nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance were closely divided over which candidate did the better job, according to a CNN instant poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS, and the event left viewers with more positive views of both candidates than they held pre-debate. Among debate watchers, Walz remains the candidate who’s seen more positively and as more in touch with their needs and vision for the country. Vance, who suffers from more of an image deficit among both viewers and the public at large, boosted his standing among the debate audience, outperforming expectations and gaining ground on the share who perceive him as qualified. He was also narrowly seen as doing a better job than Walz of defending his running mate. Both men, the poll finds, are viewed by a majority of debate watchers as qualified to assume the presidency if needed. And practically none of the voters who tuned in saw the debate as a reason to change their votes. Following the debate, 51% of viewers said that Vance did the better job, with 49% picking Walz. In a survey conducted of the same voters prior to the debate, Walz held the advantage as the candidate they expected to perform more strongly, 54% to 45%. The closely divided opinions about the outcome of Tuesday’s debate stand in sharp contrast to the more decisive audience reaction following this year’s top-of-the-ticket debates. In June, two-thirds of debate watchers thought that former President Donald Trump outperformed President Joe Biden, while a 63% majority who tuned in to the September debate between Trump and Kamala Harris said that the vice president did the better job. Views of the vice presidential hopefuls split largely along pre-established political lines Tuesday night: 90% of debate watchers who support Trump’s candidacy said that Vance did the better job, while a slightly narrower 82% of the Harris supporters who tuned in saw Walz as the winner. The poll’s results reflect opinions of the debate only among those voters who tuned in and aren’t representative of the views of the full voting public.

Debate watchers in the poll were 3 percentage points likelier to be Democratic-aligned than Republican-aligned, making for an audience that was about 5 points more Democratic-leaning than all registered voters nationally. That’s a difference from the audience for the two presidential debates this year, both of which were slightly more GOP-leaning than the potential American electorate overall. What voters who don’t tune in hear about an event in the following days can often be as impactful as immediate views of the event itself. Following the debate, 59% of debate watchers said they had a favorable view of Walz, with just 22% viewing him unfavorably – an improvement from his already positive numbers among the same voters pre-debate (46% favorable, 32% unfavorable). Debate watchers came away from the debate with roughly neutral views of Vance: 41% rated him favorably and 44% unfavorably. That’s also an improvement from their image of Vance pre-debate, when his ratings among this group were deeply underwater (30% favorable, 52% unfavorable). Among debate watchers, Walz boosted his favorability far more among women than men, while Vance’s gains were about the same among voters of both genders. About 1 in 5 Trump supporters (21%) who tuned in now say they have a favorable view of Walz, while Vance’s favorability rating with Harris’ supporters remains at just 8%. In a CNN poll of all Americans taken prior to the debate, views of Walz were narrowly above water, with 36% of voters viewing him favorably, 32% unfavorably, and a sizable 33% saying they hadn’t heard of him or had no opinion of him. By contrast, views of Vance tilted negative, with 30% of registered voters rating him favorably, 42% unfavorably, and 27% offering no opinion. A 65% majority of debate watchers now say Walz is qualified to serve as president if necessary,

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